forum.ww1aircraftmodels.com
Modelers Lounge => Time to relax => Topic started by: eclarson on April 20, 2016, 02:27:47 AM
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I've had this thought rattling around in my brain for a few days and decided to toss it out here.
It all started when I attended an IPMS Regional convention in Dayton, Ohio the weekend before last. They had a record number of entries - over 650 if I remember correctly - and there was no lack of aircraft with WWI being well represented but to my surprise not one single Wingnut model was entered. The only WWI-era model over 1/48 scale I recall seeing was a Revell 1/28 Fokker D.VII. Also, one of the vendors had a pair of WNW kits for sale (a Hansa W.12 and Bristol Fighter), both priced on par with their going rate from WNW, and at the end of the show (which ran 2 days) they were still sitting on his table. There was a time when they would have been gone within hours of the show opening.
Which led to my question. With the increase in prices and the fact that many of us who are fans now have an accumulation of their kits that may never be built (since like it or not, we all have finite life spans), has the market for such kits reached the saturation point?
With the sold out kits going for exorbitant prices on eBay, are people deciding not to build their kits in hopes of turning then into big bucks when theirs go out of stock? And for that matter, when was the last time a WNW kit sold out? It would be interesting to learn their daily sales numbers especially since the price increase.
Maybe what I observed at the show was just a fluke and the answer to my question is a big "no". I hope so.
Your thoughts?
Cheers,
Eric
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I think your conclusion based on one show (even though it was a Regional) might have to be marked "insufficient data."
Not all modelers who bought WnW kits enter contests, and as for the H-B w.12 and Brisfit, they're not that popular among WWI enthusiasts (just look at the WnW Sold Out list to see what IS). Basic market forces are at work here: kits get sold out because they're in demand, and demand doesn't decrease, so the price rises. Conversely, those still available from WnW are so largely because the tiny demand (at least at that price point) was met long ago. Sir Peter decides what WnW produces, and many of those kits would NOT top the list in a poll of kits desired by internet modelers. I'm predicting that the WnW Camel will go quickly once it goes on sale, regardless of increased prices and lack of free shipping, ESPECIALLY since we know that the number of kits produced will be finite. And in that case, you may be right about some "buying to flip."
When WnW does add shipping costs to their recent price increases I wonder what will happen to WnW sales in those countries where the buyer must reckon on high taxes, import duties, and other fees. But I'd bet that, even then, Camel fans will make adjustments in order to buy them (I'm saving my pennies for at least two).
Respectfully,
Rob
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I think your conclusion based on one show (even though it was a Regional) might have to be marked "insufficient data."
...
Respectfully,
Rob
Hi Rob,
Thank you for your input. Just to be clear, I really didn't come to a conclusion, just more of a question raised. You may be spot on regarding this instance being an anomaly but just a couple years every show I attended, some quite small, would have at least one or two WNW kits entered. This being a well-attended Regional within reach of several large modeling groups, it struck me as strange to not see any there.
Cheers,
Eric
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Eric, Sorry, I should have read more carefully. . . Your question wasn't about sales, but, "Since they ARE selling, why aren't more being built?"
Regards, Rob
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Eric, Sorry, I should have read more carefully. . . Your question wasn't about sales, but, "Since they ARE selling, why aren't more being built?"
Regards, Rob
Well at the Last 3 IPMS Nationals there were in excess of 25 WNW kits more than either 1/32 WW II or Modern Jets respectively, so plenty are being built, that indicates somewhat of a "bandwagon" and the 1/48 WWI entries have been increasing also.
Ed
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Lasy show I went to was Antwerpen (Belguim) and there was only 1 WnW on show, several 1/48, no problem there.
There was only 1 vender selling WnW kits and the general feeling was that yes, yhey veru good, perhaps the best kits made ever, but too expensive.
I spent some time at that booth (old friend) and there were no takers, altough many people know the brand and the reputation.
some were holding 1/48 eduards and rodens in their hands so they build WWI, but no takers and the price was pretty good.
The man said he dropped the price twice on a preveous show and still no takers.
my feeling is that WnW might be becoming to expensive for the general public, but it is a one-time view and my persanol feeling
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An interesting question and I am going to put out an abstract thought. As for the phenomenon, I think it was a combination of certain aspects of WNW releases. Suddenly there were/are absolutely beautifully detailed kits of WW1 subjects in a scale that allowed us WW1 modelers to really super detail or just build a great kit OOB. at a more than reasonable price. The draw for non WW1 builders was that terrific kits were now available and very buildable of subjects they recognized such as the SE5a, Pfalz, Albatros DV/DVa, Fokker DVII, etc. So they were drawn in to the WW1 Aircraft market and many have stayed there. The other more esoteric kits of 2 seaters and more obscure types like the Junkers J1 suited the Hardcore WW1 modeler. So now the abstract view. WNW has not released a truly MIANSTREAM model in a while. No Fokkers, Albatri, Sopwiths, Nieuports, or any recognizable to the non WW1. Added to that the latest releases have been larger higher priced kits that even a WW1 enthusiast thinks twice about! So my point is wait for the Camel release! You will see a huge difference in the reaction in spite of a little higher price! JMHO,
RAGIII
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Good points Rick. A few additional thoughts, a big booster was the W-29 early on, why; it was a low wing monoplane, no rigging and a cool camo scheme. At the Nationals in Omaha there were 4, I talked to all 4 builders independently and the story was the same, the previous 3 points, plus the WNW "rep" made all 4 build them as their first WW I a/c and one said it was his First A/c kit period.
Since there are now the vanilla, chocolate, and strawberry kits available (well- some sold out) combined with Sir PJ's desires for the 2-seaters/lesser known types, price increase, the anecdotal stories of lack of interest is not without basis. So Yes, as Rick said, sales of the Camel will be a more accurate barometer. Also I think it would be a good idea to then continue with kits of a/c not done (Dolphin-please-insert your own choices) before doing the Dr-I, jmho.
Ed
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"So Yes, as Rick said, sales of the Camel will be a more accurate barometer."
I agree with yours and Rick's statements on this question Ed. The Camel will sell like pies at a County Fair IMHO; an iconic subject that will be more "buildable" then the ones now available, and like the P-51 or Spit to the WWII fans, a must have for most who work in our genre. I plan on getting at least two (to build) and I'd bet most here think the same. If sales at Wingnut are a concern then this is exactly what they need. As for a Dolphin, Giddy Up!!
Cheers,
Lance
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"So Yes, as Rick said, sales of the Camel will be a more accurate barometer."
I agree with yours and Rick's statements on this question Ed. The Camel will sell like pies at a County Fair IMHO; an iconic subject that will be more "buildable" then the ones now available, and like the P-51 or Spit to the WWII fans, a must have for most who work in our genre. I plan on getting at least two (to build) and I'd bet most here think the same. If sales at Wingnut are a concern then this is exactly what they need. As for a Dolphin, Giddy Up!!
Cheers,
Lance
I plan on a couple myself... to build also. So if I am correct there should be bunch showing up at contests after release.
RAGIII
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Don't know if it's winding down, but I think WNW have passed their high water mark. I think their sales per kit will not hit the same numbers they've had in the past, purely because the price makes them less affordable for many, me included!
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Don't know if it's winding down, but I think WNW have passed their high water mark. I think their sales per kit will not hit the same numbers they've had in the past, purely because the price makes them less affordable for many, me included!
That could very well be though again I emphasize that it depends on the "General" market appeal for, not just us WW enthusiast but also those just interested in the Spits and 109s of WW1. I personally won't decrease my spending on WNW kits. I have stated before that my purchases have amounted to 1 or 2 a year. Not going to change that much with increases in pricing. Those that purchase each and every WNW kit probably wont change much either as they must have a larger disposable income to start. So it is the in-betweens that may wind down a bit. JMHO,
RAGIII
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Price is always a consideration, just depends upon what you want and are you willing to pay for it immediately or wait till sufficient funds are available. Say the Camel comes out as 3 different boxes, that still leaves 18 numbers to be filled; that allows for plenty of the "wish lists" to be produced. Just hope the Dolphin comes soon...
Ed
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Hello All
Maybe what we are seeing/wii see is a change in the profile of the WNW buying public. With the release of those first few magnificent models, WNW captured the excitement and loyalty of Great War aircraft fans who were then only too happy, pockets allowing, to follow the whims of new releases. Outside what has been our relatively narrow niche, some of these releases must have seemed somewhat esoteric.
Yet, over recent years there has been an increasing number of reviews and builds of WNW kits in the more mainstream aircraft and general modelling magazines. Such articles have surely alerted others to the quality, comparative constructional ease and excellent value of the WNW products. All that might be needed to nudge many more into trying one themselves is the release of a familiar single seater at the lower end of the WNW price range. Bring on the Camel ....... even if it does mean it being followed by a you know what!
Best wishes
Nigel
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At the Scottish National Model Show in Perth (the original one!) a week or so back, there was a noticeable dearth of WNW models for the first time in years.
Previously there have been lots of these fantastic kits (with a terrific Felixstowe and several others in competition last year and probably a couple of dozen more in evidence elsewhere). However this year only one club table had the usual handful they always show - but the only new WNW model was a nice Salmson in the competition.
Perth is a pretty big show and attracts lots of clubs, vendors and manufacturers, so I was disappointed by this. There were two WNWs on a vendors stand - a Ninack at £80 and a Fokker DVII at £90 which I thought were pretty OK prices but the Fokker was still there at the end of the second day. Probably not surprising when there were lots of better deals - eg one trader had a stack of big Tamiya Mosquitoes (export grade with the extra bits) as a show-special, reduced from £159 to £100!!! Since my Dad was in Mozzies I had to treat myself to one of them - Heck of a lot more kit than the Fokker DVII for only £10 more!
One dealer had Merit 1/24 SE5s and Dr.1s going like hotcakes at £45 each.
I know lots of listees have said they are prepared to pay anything WNW decide to charge but I think Wingnuts will have sold very little since the price rise. I just hope they haven't scuppered the company.
Anyway on a brighter note, I had a great catch-up with John Adams at the Aeroclub stand and he sends his best regards to all on the list that know him. I picked up several packs of his extruded wing struts, instruments and suchlike (and I suggest it's worth doing the same as some of his suppliers are becoming a bit erratic).
Lots of interest in the Airfix BE2 and Eindekker and some were being built by the kids' on the Airfix shake and bake tables, so that must be a good sign for the future.
Sandy
PS pics are available at www.scotnats.org if of any interest
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In the meanwhile on ebay at least two Hannover went for a fair price, nothing seen in the last months.
Are all the WNW fans sparing some cash for the Camel?
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Is the Wingnuts phenomenon winding down - yes is my answer, but it's not just Wingnuts but the whole WW1 aviation modeling and aftermarket suppliers as well. I firmly believe that Wingnuts have shot themselves in the foot with their latest price increases and the news that the free post will cease soon, but they are a business and need to cover costs. The aftermarket people are also doing it tough at the moment, word is that sales are down and interest has dwindled, some are finding it difficult to cover costs for development of new products. I have even noticed a backward trend in the member participation with not only this forum but many others. If Wingnuts do finally release any new kits interest will be sparked up again but only for a short time, same will apply for new releases from any company unless of course it is something of extreme interest. As always, the world money market is playing a huge role in what has happened, kit prices are rising but money value is falling. Many are saving their pennies for that elusive magical kit to come from Wingnuts, it is such a shame that primarily what happens to our hobby revolves around what Wingnuts does. Just my two cents worth.
Des.
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I agree with Des. WWI aircraft modelling, at least in 1/32, is WNW. We have all enjoyed their rise, but the negative side of dominating a market to the virtual exclusion of all others is now apparent. It's a monopoly and WNW can increase prices because they have no competition. However, with money still tight for most people, and delivery charges imminent, it may well be that WNW see's a reduction in total income despite increasing prices, as it sells far, far fewer kits at the higher prices.
Is there a risk that WNW will fail to increase revenue and run at a loss, leading to them closing their doors completely? That's something that concerns me a little.
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I think Des & Jiffy have pretty much nailed it with that statement.
IMHO another contributing factor is the disappearance of the most popular such as the Albatrossen, Fokkers & Sopwiths. I know WNW always said their kits were limited run but the market has changed dramatically since they made that statement.
I'm sure if they changed policy and reintroduced the more popular sold out kits no one would complainand a steady flow of buyers would continue. I'd for one would buy and build Albatros D series kits till they came out my ears, I'm kind of hoping Merit would do a 1/24th one, even if it were sketchy I'd buy at least 2 to kit bash.
With a tighter budget not so good eyesight & motor skills and little coming in WWI I'm re-exploring other aspects of modelling too.
For me there's no real excitement about what and if WNW will release these days, I'm not knocking their policies but recently it's done nothing for me personally, gone are the days of checking their website frequently and I've found their lack of communication disheartening not excitingly secretive anymore. I'm sure though if WNW hit is with a surprise Albatros W.4 or a Junkers D.I or one of the Austro Hungarian fold or similar my interest will rise again but for now I'm slumbering (still building my Junkers J.I though slowly. :D)
I don't mean the above to sound as negative as it probably does.
Keith
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Could it be that our taste buds have become jaded after so many WNW kits? It is possible to have too much of a good thing
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No go away! ;)
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Haha, remember that one too...!
I am with Kornbeef.
And I am back with Roden, too.
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"And finally Sir, a waffer thin mint?"
Haven't heard that in a long time RB. Hahaha.
Is the correct responce,
No! Better get a bucket. ;D
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I'm full...
So is my stash :)
Ivo
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As a bit of historical perspective, when Revell started the 1/32 WW II kits in the 1970s the same excitement and boom followed ( and joined by other companies) after all the vanilla, strawberry and chocolate kits filled the line, the next "new" kits, of the lesser know vs. popular subjects; only displaced the worst selling kits at the bottom of the pile, all prices rose and then came a drought of many years without any new releases. As we all know there is a resurgence in large WW II kits. So despite the anecdotal examples, I think the doom of WNW is ...greatly exaggerated... it will exist until either Sir PJ gets all the kits he wants or tires of it before then. Then like Dracula ( or more akin to modeling -Accurate Miniature Kits) it will rise from the grave by someone/some company who buys up the molds and puts them out again under different "Brand" names.
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Revell 1:32 WW1-kits in the seventies and follow-ups? I can only remember the three 1:28 scale kits plus the Fokker D.VII.
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Could it be that our taste buds have become jaded after so many WNW kits? It is possible to have too much of a good thing
James, I think you nailed it with that statement.
Eric
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That was about 1/32 kits in general...
Revell issued a series in the 70s but I remember they were way too costly for a boy's pockets.
They started to pile up on the shelves of the hobby shops with the Cadillac hasegawa kits of the 80s.
It was only in the 90s that they become affordable since revell reissued them at a cheaper price and the yen went down.
Some revell takara (namely the three or four Japanese fighters) became a holy grail until hasegawa and zoukei Mura issued new molds.
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I think they are hurting themselves with their business model. Yes prices went up, but they have been good for so long and they do have costs we know little of that will cut into the profit margin. So the prices had to be changed. The problem is they are so secretive and wont let anything out as other kit makers do. Yes the Camel is coming but who knows what else. Because of this people are always checking the site and conjecturing and that kept interest up. The quality for sure kept the interest up. But not re releasing top favourites such as the Fokker DVII and Albatross' means that all those markings that came out are of little use. After Market companies all of a sudden have little interest in their products becauser the base kit isnt available. All combined means that less people are devoutly folowing them now and maybe we have reached the tipping point where they are no longer the golden child of the modeling community. Less people making less noise making less interest.
But I think they have done a good job of introducing a broader number of modelers to the WWI gendre than anyone else. I know I would probably not have switched from WWII modeling to WWI if not for WNW. And now I have enough at my current rate to build till I go to the workshop in the sky.
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Richard told me that they have their new releases already mapped out to 2020, ie work in progress currently at various stages
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Richard told me that they have their new releases already mapped out to 2020, ie work in progress currently at various stages
...news of my passing are greatly exaggerated... 20 numbers still un-accounted for... , aha!
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Richard told me that they have their new releases already mapped out to 2020, ie work in progress currently at various stages
Now, that's a significant comment, at least to my ears, Jamo. I'd say Richard is as about as "close to the source" as we are going to hear from. All's not lost given reference to "release (s)" and a date four years down the road! Just need to be patient, is all!
Cheers,
Lance
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Richard told me that they have their new releases already mapped out to 2020, ie work in progress currently at various stages
Now, that's a significant comment, at least to my ears, Jamo. I'd say Richard is as about as "close to the source" as we are going to hear from. All's not lost given reference to "release (s)" and a date four years down the road! Just need to be patient, is all!
Cheers,
Lance
I agree completely! Although being patient isn't one of my best qualities ::) The one thing that has been repeated many times in a number of threads is that WNW business plan,( whatever it is), is like no other Model Company. We all know that other companies keep certain Money Cows in production almost continually. I am sure the 109s , 190s, Spits, and Zeroes keep Tamigawa well financed for research and development. As others have said, DVIIs and Albatros DVs would have the same effect here. But it is obviously NOT the WNW way. SO we wait. IN the mean time I still have Roden, SH etc. kits to build as well as my small WNW stash. I still say the decline in interest will cease when the Camel and any other recognizable kit appears. The interest will peak again! JMHO,
RAGIII
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Richard told me that they have their new releases already mapped out to 2020, ie work in progress currently at various stages
...news of my passing are greatly exaggerated... 20 numbers still un-accounted for... , aha!
I certainly hope you are right, but another quote comes to mind, from Mandy Rice-Davies at the Profumo affair trial - "Well, he would say that, wouldn't he?"
I saw PJ talking the other day and he said his first objective with a new movie is ensuring the investors get their money back. I can't see he'll be happy bankrolling a loss-making company for ever - and I doubt they've sold very much at all since the last price increases.
I just wish they'd adopt a sensible business plan coz we'd all hate to see them go west. One idea would be to re-release popular sold out kits - they could ask for pre-orders to guage numbers required; and perhaps offer discounts for those committing to buy up-front.
Fingers crossed, they manage to fill the 20 extant product numbers, but I hae ma doots!
S
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I have to believe that WNW will be kept solvent by Mr Jackson. If it were otherwise, surely they'd make a few more thousand Fokker D.VII, Triplanes, Pups, RE.8's, etc??? Do some proper marketing, look to the retail sector, adopt some sort of PR. It's just weird, a company that refuses to sell it's most popular kits beyond a certain number of moulds? It only makes sense when you assume PJ's bankrolling it, but that makes the massive price increases & expected shipping costs more difficult to explain?
I just don't get WNW at all.
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I have to believe that WNW will be kept solvent by Mr Jackson. If it were otherwise, surely they'd make a few more thousand Fokker D.VII, Triplanes, Pups, RE.8's, etc??? Do some proper marketing, look to the retail sector, adopt some sort of PR. It's just weird, a company that refuses to sell it's most popular kits beyond a certain number of moulds? It only makes sense when you assume PJ's bankrolling it, but that makes the massive price increases & expected shipping costs more difficult to explain?
I just don't get WNW at all.
It is strange that they wouldn't cash in on the almost sure market for the Albys, Fokkers and the such. I've
given up trying to figure it out.
Cheers,
Ernie :)
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I have to believe that WNW will be kept solvent by Mr Jackson. If it were otherwise, surely they'd make a few more thousand Fokker D.VII, Triplanes, Pups, RE.8's, etc??? Do some proper marketing, look to the retail sector, adopt some sort of PR. It's just weird, a company that refuses to sell it's most popular kits beyond a certain number of moulds? It only makes sense when you assume PJ's bankrolling it, but that makes the massive price increases & expected shipping costs more difficult to explain?
I just don't get WNW at all.
It is strange that they wouldn't cash in on the almost sure market for the Albys, Fokkers and the such. I've
given up trying to figure it out.
Cheers,
Ernie :)
Per that last quote maybe we should all adopt that position and takes whatever fate has in store.
Ed.
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It is also hard for me to imagine, or try to guess the sort of income stream Mr. Jackson has. While the operating expense of a WNW style of business can be extrapolated, at least to a point, I'd have a very vague idea of actual costs. So, IMDB states PJs salary just for King Kong at 20 mil + 20% of gross. That's a lot of cheese. LOTR, and The Hobbit would add some similar numbers, esp. as LOTR has made 1 billion worldwide. So, after all of that, the costs of creating a model company may be more in perspective. I'd still se the value in a re-run of specific kits, but that can be dismissed as straight linear thinking, and not out-of-the-box thinking, which PJ does very well.
Of course people like me may be a bit burned out on the lack of info, and figure it'll be here when it gets here. Until then, I have a few WNW kits to build.
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I love that... Until then I have a few WNW kits to build... Yeah, we all wait in fevered anticipation for the "next" release, but by my count there have been 49 individual boxings, variants included, I admit, but all completely different, since 2009 - that's just over 6 per year, or one every two months on average! (Not including dog-fight doubles...). Now compare this to Tamiya, they have a great reputation but I can only count 24 releases since 1994 in 1/32 scale, including variants, this is about 1 point one per year! And Tamiya is regarded as a "benchmark" leader! Yes, Trumpeter release a lot more, there's also HobbyBoss, KittyHawk, and Roden, Not to mention Special Hobby, but their ranges and overall presentation and quality leave something to be desired... Hasegawa and Revell were really big in the past, but their recent production has fallen off considerably.. When we talk about quality, it was WNW that made other manufacturers step up to the mark: Only since they were around do you get full colour instruction booklets in premium productions and information in detail with photographs of the prototype, not to mention 5 colour schemes and photoetch. I won't even mention the website, it may take a decade for the others to catch up...
But as you wait impatiently for the next WNW boxing please remember a few pointers put out by WNW themselves: it takes 18 months as a minimum to go from idea to production of ONE kit: If they do a whole lot of variants (ie Eindekker or Camel) this will take longer: There are release numbers up to 60 already, Oh Happy days! There are only 3 criteria for releasing a kit (Actually 4, must be WW1): 2:Do we, WNW (ie Sir Peter) want to see a model of it? 3: Do we have enough references? 4: Do we think other modellers want to build a model of it? So, Happy days again, I'm sure that the Fokker Triplane and Zeppellin Staaken will both be released sometime!
The other issue is re-releases: There is absolutely no reason that WNW will not re-release every model they produce at some time in the future, in fact, they have done so already: If you look at the kit number of the OAW DV, it comes after the early Albatross, so they almost certainly had to do a re-run of those: But as WNW says, you will never get the same markings and maybe not even the same PE and extra details again: Every new release will be different.
Lastly, do the Excellent Staff at WNW ever have a good laugh at us and our anxieties? Yes, I'm sure they do, they are most unlikely to go bankrupt or stop production in the near future, I'm sure they still sell plenty and make money, I'm sure they get an extra laugh at the evil-bay prices (This is good for the marque, like Ferrari Auction prices) and they wish us well as we enjoy their kits, unbuilt or built....
Regards,
Marc