forum.ww1aircraftmodels.com

WW1 Aircraft Modeling => What's New => Topic started by: Chuckt5 on December 13, 2014, 03:33:38 PM

Title: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: Chuckt5 on December 13, 2014, 03:33:38 PM
Anyone care to guess how many of each kit WNW is producing in its initial production runs?

 Do you think they are all about the same #, or would they punch out more of some types and less of others?

It would be nice to know if they are getting low on a particular kit before they run out. Then those of us who are on the fence about buying could make a purchase before its too late. Sure keeps you on your toes though!  ;)

What do you all think?
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: Des on December 13, 2014, 03:42:46 PM
I would not even hazzard a guess.

Des.
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: Chuckt5 on December 13, 2014, 04:46:51 PM
I have no idea myself. Just wondering if anyone out there does really.
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: ermeio on December 13, 2014, 07:16:07 PM
Anyone care to guess how many of each kit WNW is producing in its initial production runs?

 Do you think they are all about the same #, or would they punch out more of some types and less of others?

It would be nice to know if they are getting low on a particular kit before they run out. Then those of us who are on the fence about buying could make a purchase before its too late. Sure keeps you on your toes though!  ;)

What do you all think?

I'm wondering if  their order serial number is the effective serial number of the  order.
They have had some 17000 orders now. I can guess that the avg number of kits per order is between 3 and 4.
Therefore they have sold around 50000 kits now and that is in line with the market figures... Around 2000 ww1 modelers in the world, plus some occasional customers and an average of 20 kits per modeller (4 kits times 5 years).... 40000 kits to the aficionados and 10000 among the other 5-10000 modellers.
They produce 1000-2000 kits per run.
They only know how many, but I figure these are the numbers. It maybe that they ordered a bigger run for the first kits, and that eventually they cast a new run for some kits.
We could have a better estimate if some of us (twenty should suffice) share the data about each order that we made... Like serial of the order, number of kits, date of the order.
After our research WnW will discontinue the policy about numbering of their orders :-)
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: Alan Roffey on December 13, 2014, 07:24:03 PM
What is your basis for there being 2,000 First World War modellers in the world?! 
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: stefanbuss on December 13, 2014, 09:44:05 PM
Quote
They have had some 17000 orders now.

How do you know that?
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: ermeio on December 13, 2014, 10:03:18 PM
What is your basis for there being 2,000 First World War modellers in the world?!
It is just an estimate... I used the number of registered users for this site as a proxy and validated that number against the number of registered users in  LSP, and in other similar website,- these users are a superset of those really enthusiast  about ww1 aircraft in 32.
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: ermeio on December 13, 2014, 10:14:19 PM
Quote
They have had some 17000 orders now.

How do you know that?

Did you ever place an order at WnW? And more than one order?
Check the invoices you received by email (your WnW order has been shipped) and you will discover why I suppose that they had that number of orders.
I'd like to validate my supposition, and therefore I'm asking for someone that ordered from them, to cross validate our data.
:-)
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: WarrenD on December 13, 2014, 10:17:03 PM
I pick the number 42.

Warren
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: uncletony on December 13, 2014, 10:54:47 PM
I pick the number 42.

Warren

Damn! You beat me to it  :D

(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/56/Answer_to_Life.png)
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: WarrenD on December 14, 2014, 12:26:57 AM
It's a good number Bo, we are obviously men of refinement and taste.  ;D ;)

I do remember long ago, and far away, back in the late 90's or so, someone pondered on the WWI Modeling List the number of dedicated WWI modelers worldwide. Someone, can't remember who at this point, stated that they had had this conversation with Ray Rimmell, and based on a number of factors, he did indeed guesstimate it at something like 2,000. Now, there's no way to know that, and in my very humble opinion, that number, just like guesstimating the production run WNW kits is nothing more than a WAG.

Warren
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: WarrenD on December 14, 2014, 12:31:41 AM
What is your basis for there being 2,000 First World War modellers in the world?!
It is just an estimate... I used the number of registered users for this site as a proxy and validated that number against the number of registered users in  LSP, and in other similar website,- these users are a superset of those really enthusiast  about ww1 aircraft in 32.

What about those that build in 1/72nd? 1/48th? How about 1/144th? What about the number of modelers that see no need to get on a scale modeling message board. (You might be very surprised, I've met numerous modelers who have told me they have no need or desire to get on a forum.)

Warren
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: uncletony on December 14, 2014, 12:46:53 AM
What is your basis for there being 2,000 First World War modellers in the world?!
It is just an estimate... I used the number of registered users for this site as a proxy and validated that number against the number of registered users in  LSP, and in other similar website,- these users are a superset of those really enthusiast  about ww1 aircraft in 32.

What about those that build in 1/72nd? 1/48th? How about 1/144th? What about the number of modelers that see no need to get on a scale modeling message board. (You might be very surprised, I've met numerous modelers who have told me they have no need or desire to get on a forum.)

Warren

I think Ermeio's number is low, but on or near the right order of magnitude. You basically can't acquire a WNW without getting on the net, and while yes, for sure not everyone is going to join a msg board, these days seeking info on the web means sooner or later you need to stick your head in the door.

Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: uncletony on December 14, 2014, 01:00:03 AM
WNW fans on FB has 2371 fans. You have to imagine they very nearly are all customers.
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: WarrenD on December 14, 2014, 01:07:16 AM
WNW fans on FB has 2371 fans. You have to imagine they very nearly are all customers.

Most of them would be, yes, BUT the number of WWI modelers I am sure is beyond the number of WNW customers. I am sure there are a significant number of WWI modelers who have never bought a WNW kit. I only succumbed to temptation in the last thirty days, and may never build one of them. Who knows?

Warren
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: uncletony on December 14, 2014, 01:08:40 AM
WNW fans on FB has 2371 fans. You have to imagine they very nearly are all customers.

Most of them would be, yes, BUT the number of WWI modelers I am sure is beyond the number of WNW customers. I am sure there are a significant number of WWI modelers who have never bought a WNW kit. I only succumbed to temptation in the last thirty days, and may never build one of them. Who knows?

Warren

Right, but Ermeio is trying to get at the number of WNW customers...
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: mike in calif on December 14, 2014, 02:39:03 AM
For what it is worth, I'll contend that a fairly large group of modellers is stepping up to 1/32 WWI because of WNW. Ermio's figure of 2K is prolly +- 10%. I have 34 on the shelf, have built 3 and 1 in progress; I'd order another 3 right now if it was in the budget, 4 if I count the AEG on release. I think I'm somewhere in the middle of the pack with stash, and builds.
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: Chuckt5 on December 14, 2014, 06:45:40 AM
Agreed.
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: Des on December 14, 2014, 07:46:42 AM
Just like any other model kit manufacturer Wingnuts are not going to tell you how many kits they have sold, try writing to Tamiya or Eduard and ask them their sales figures, I'm sure they will be as silent as Wingnuts.

Many years ago I read a report "somewhere" that a scientific study had been done on the number of modelers who actually make WW1 aircraft models, the figure was surprising, 10,000 approx. Bear in mind that this is worldwide so as a percentage of population it is a very very tiny figure. Forum numbers would not give an indication of WW1 modelers, I know many modelers who have never and never will join a forum but still build WW1 model aircraft. Even the 2000 + members on this forum don't all build models, many have never left a post since they first joined.

Wingnuts are doing well, they are selling quite a few kits and will continue to do so until such time as SPJ decides he doesn't want to play this game anymore.

Getting back to the original question, I stick with my first answer, I wouldn't hazzard a guess - but I am very thankful that Wingnuts are around regardless of how many kits they sell.

Des.
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: ermeio on December 14, 2014, 08:05:26 AM
I put another order today and they are at around 17.000 orders. It would be interesting for me to draw a curve of WNW sales.
I ordered my first batch two years ago, and therefore I hope that someone can send me a PM with something like this:
Order Number: 322924-15647      
Order Date: 11 November 2014   
but for the period before 2014. The more lines like these I have, the more we can guess about production batches and sales.
With a lot of data like the following:
   Order Number: 322924-15647      
Order Date: 11 November 2014      
32016 - 1/32 Sopwith Pup RNAS   $69.00   1
32019 - 1/32 Pfalz D.XII   $69.00   1
32027 - 1/32 Fokker D.VII (Alb)   $79.00   1
32030 - 1/32 Fokker D.VII (OAW)   $79.00   1
we could even guess which are the next kits likely to go sold out and when.
Consider that these are only (statistical) estimates, a sort of exit poll, and therefore we will never be  sure.
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: ermeio on December 14, 2014, 08:13:09 AM
Des is right,
but this thread is only "pour parler", like the next WNW kit speculation...
It maybe that the great Peter in the next years will open the Gates of paradise and the world will be inundated by WNW kits, available for just a few bucks each in every little shop (sweet memories of the 70s when the airfix bagged kits were hanging in some corner of almost any shop...)
moreover, guessing how many kits they cast in each run tell nothing, since they can have more than one run, like for the HB W 29...
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: WarrenD on December 14, 2014, 09:07:54 AM
moreover, guessing how many kits they cast in each run tell nothing, since they can have more than one run, like for the HB W 29...

Who says they had more than one run?  ;) :o For all we know, they've been sitting on those sprues since day one.  8)

Warren
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: ermeio on December 14, 2014, 09:15:08 AM
moreover, guessing how many kits they cast in each run tell nothing, since they can have more than one run, like for the HB W 29...

Who says they had more than one run?  ;) :o For all we know, they've been sitting on those sprues since day one.  8)

Warren
Yes the arcane of that WnWfan that sold some 14 W29on evilbay,  each one for an astonishing amount of dollars is solved...
there must be a cave full of WnW somewhere, and possibly Gandalf is coming to propose us a new adventure...
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: Chuckt5 on December 14, 2014, 01:14:03 PM
As Des mentioned above, I too am grateful for WNW and how little or many kits they produce.  :)

May they continue to do so for a LONG long time!  ;)
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: LukasTheLight on December 14, 2014, 01:25:26 PM
I'm so thankfull for WNW... and I strongly believe in re-release in those sold out kits...  we are just too impatient though :) Eduard, Tamiya and many more manufactures do re-releases, often after many years after first release... mind you, I ordered WNW Junkers yesterday, makes it 14 planes bought just this year and none built due being on travels :) luckily they can wait  :D
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: ALBATROS1234 on December 14, 2014, 02:40:41 PM
stephen lawson had estimated thru some calculation on the drome a while back more like 10,000 ww1 aircraft modellers worldwide. forums numbers are a gauge of uber enthusists but only a fraction i would say 1/3. for example. myself i own 400 odd ww1 aircraft models. less than 30 are wnw. i am a member here, britmodeller and lsp but i dont really post elsewhere. i am not a member of facebook and could care less about it . i personally know locally half dozen ww1 aircraft modellers. of them only one has face book that i know of. one who has around 10 wnw kits isnt a member of any forum. one doesnt even own a computer he is an older gent of around 65ish and he was known round here as the red baron during mardi gras cuz he had a costume and had modified a bicycle to look like 425/17. my point is internet useage and forum membership is a gauge but is not by any means an accurate estimator.
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: LukasTheLight on December 14, 2014, 05:55:07 PM
Couldn't agree more with Albatros1234... I think it is impossible to try estimate WNW sales and numbers based on internet only...
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: Doug Mace on December 15, 2014, 03:17:06 AM
2,000..... 10,000...whichever... Out of seven billion people on the planet? Can we really be that much of a minority?
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: WarrenD on December 15, 2014, 03:26:05 AM
2,000..... 10,000...whichever... Out of seven billion people on the planet? Can we really be that much of a minority?

Yes, we're like a subset of a subset of geeky nerds.

Warren
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: WarrenD on December 15, 2014, 03:58:29 AM
Didn't say we weren't cool. Hell's bells and peanut shells, that's the point man: we're so geeky, we've come full circle to the other side that we're now the coolest of the cool.  8)

Warren
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: ermeio on December 15, 2014, 05:14:16 AM
KING HENRY V:
we, the lucky few...
From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be remember'd;
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
....
And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks
That fought with us upon Saint Crispin's day.
:-)
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: Dwaynewilly on December 15, 2014, 11:35:34 AM
I'm thinking that the point of the original question has been kinda lost.  Who knows how many folks are out there buying and building these kits?  Most likely we will never really know.  It's not really very important accept to the manufacturers anyway.  How about the folks at WNW letting us know when they are running low on any of their kits?  It may help some of us who are not as fortunate as others financially to spend their limited funds on those kits that they really want before they are gone. 

Happy Holidays to all!

Dwayne   
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: petrov27 on December 15, 2014, 12:12:39 PM
2,000..... 10,000...whichever... Out of seven billion people on the planet? Can we really be that much of a minority?

Yes, could be. What is more amazing is one of this minority has net-worth of 500 million NZD and really likes to spend on his hobbies!
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: WarrenD on December 15, 2014, 12:20:49 PM
2,000..... 10,000...whichever... Out of seven billion people on the planet? Can we really be that much of a minority?

Yes, could be. What is more amazing is one of this minority has net-worth of 500 million NZD and really likes to spend on his hobbies!

And aren't we just glad about that?  :D

Warren
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: ALBATROS1234 on December 15, 2014, 12:54:58 PM
and we wont see another exclusively ww1 aircraft injection molded company again......ever.so squirrel enuff away to last to the autumn years of your life .
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: Des on December 15, 2014, 02:11:06 PM
I have enough kits to last me a life time and a half, with more kits on order, and that doesn't take into account any scratch builds I do, man, I need to live until I'm at least 150.

Des.
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: Ernie on December 15, 2014, 08:41:24 PM
I have enough kits to last me a life time and a half, with more kits on order, and that doesn't take into account any scratch builds I do, man, I need to live until I'm at least 150.

Des.

I think most of us are in that boat, Des. ;D  We must be an optimistic bunch,
not letting a little thing like mortality deter our accumulating. ;D

Cheers,
Ernie :)
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: gcn on December 15, 2014, 10:37:14 PM
I'm thinking that the point of the original question has been kinda lost.  Who knows how many folks are out there buying and building these kits?  Most likely we will never really know.  It's not really very important accept to the manufacturers anyway.  How about the folks at WNW letting us know when they are running low on any of their kits?  It may help some of us who are not as fortunate as others financially to spend their limited funds on those kits that they really want before they are gone. 

Happy Holidays to all!

Dwayne   

I have previously stated that some form of stock ticker would be useful, but now I'm not so sure what with all the speculators and panic buyers. As soon as an item was listed as being low in stock it would sell out, so you'd be no better off.

I've a feeling they do give out clues on their featured releases page, I know the Tripe was on there for quite some time.

It's just a shame I didn't want another one until it had gone.
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: ermeio on December 16, 2014, 04:32:22 AM
Do not panic, folks
There is n need to buy more WNW kits thasn you can built...
There are herds of dwarfs, hobbits and aliens out there with caves full of WNW boxes piled for the autumn.
You know, sir Peter commanded to have at least half million of each kit cast in the first run....
Be sure they will sell them on eBay for ridicoulus prices in the next years , it is even likely that. Santa will bring the entire collection to those wishing a full set of them
:-)
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: Fokker boy on December 16, 2014, 07:39:47 AM
Near impossible to know, but I'd guess (strictly a guess) the numbers are between 3,000-5,000 units per type, but I also believe WNW would have the foresight to order more of those that would have been predicted to be huge sellers, like the Fokker D.VII.
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: Des on December 16, 2014, 07:42:56 AM
They would have sufficient stocks to meet anticipated demand for each kit.

Des.
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: dr 1 ace on December 16, 2014, 08:52:44 AM
Regardless of the number of kits produced, WNW has definitely increased the number of modelers building  WWI A/c .   After years of shrinking numbers of WWI models seen at club meetings and contests, since WNW came out the numbers have been increasing in  all scales of WW I models at clubs & contests--without a drop in other areas. 

Again I'll relate the occurrence from the IPMS National Contest of a few years ago where WNW models were in abundance (and each year since!!!), among them there were 4 WNW HB W.29s entered and each one was by a modeler that said it was his first WWI model (one said it was his 1st a/c period) due to: low wing monoplane, no rigging (almost), colorful markings and the buzz about WNW quality and each planned on getting more WNW kits.

So it is not surprising that 3 of the sold out kits fit most of that description; the other 3 easily gobbled by us enthusiasts that knew what they were,  the duellist (Fok/Dh2) a bargain much as the F2a/HB is again.

As to actual numbers of WWI modelers, personally whenever I make a WNW order it usually includes models for 1 to 3 others who  either do not have: access to the net/ paypal /or pay me cash to hide the real cost from SWMBO --so who knows exactly how many are out there 

Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: drdave on February 02, 2015, 06:50:47 PM
I think WNW have probably quadrupled the number of WW 1 modellers out there and squared the standard of building. Easy to use AM like Gaspatch and Aviattic really helps too. When I look back at my old Revell Camel I shudder....
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: Kai on February 02, 2015, 10:01:12 PM
Impossible to tell, but I'd guess at the low single figure thousands, maybe 1000, to  5,000 units per kit. I'd also guess that they don't have a standard number of production units per kit, which explains why the W29 & Sopwith Triplane sold out pretty quickly & the Albatros are still selling like hot cakes.
Title: Re: What do you think the production numbers are of each WNW kit?
Post by: Pgtaylorart on February 03, 2015, 01:09:08 AM
I know nothing about the WnWs production numbers, but I can say that they are completely responsible for my current interest in WW1 plastic models. Before a friend showed me a kit he had just purchased, I was modeling railroads, and mainly paper buildings for these railroads. I'd always liked WW1 aviation, but had never been blown away by the kits like I was when I saw what WnWs we're producing. I'm hooked now!

-George