Is the Wingnuts phenomenon winding down?

[eclarson]

I've had this thought rattling around in my brain for a few days and decided to toss it out here.

It all started when I attended an IPMS Regional convention in Dayton, Ohio the weekend before last.  They had a record number of entries - over 650 if I remember correctly - and there was no lack of aircraft with WWI being well represented but to my surprise not one single Wingnut model was entered.  The only WWI-era model over 1/48 scale I recall seeing was a Revell 1/28 Fokker D.VII.  Also, one of the vendors had a pair of WNW kits for sale (a Hansa W.12 and Bristol Fighter), both priced on par with their going rate from WNW, and at the end of the show (which ran 2 days) they were still sitting on his table.  There was a time when they would have been gone within hours of the show opening.

Which led to my question.  With the increase in prices and the fact that many of us who are fans now have an accumulation of their kits that may never be built (since like it or not, we all have finite life spans), has the market for such kits reached the saturation point? 

With the sold out kits going for exorbitant prices on eBay, are people deciding not to build their kits in hopes of turning then into big bucks when theirs go out of stock?  And for that matter, when was the last time a WNW kit sold out?   It would be interesting to learn their daily sales numbers especially since the price increase.

Maybe what I observed at the show was just a fluke and the answer to my question is a big "no".  I  hope so.

Your thoughts?

Cheers,
Eric

[Rob_Owens]

     I think your conclusion based on one show (even though it was a Regional) might have to be marked "insufficient data." 
     Not all modelers who bought WnW kits enter contests, and as for the H-B w.12 and Brisfit, they're not that popular among WWI enthusiasts (just look at the WnW Sold Out list to see what IS). Basic market forces are at work here: kits get sold out because they're in demand, and demand doesn't decrease, so the price rises.  Conversely, those still available from WnW are so largely because the tiny demand (at least at that price point) was met long ago.  Sir Peter decides what WnW produces, and many of those kits would NOT top the list in a poll of kits desired by internet modelers.  I'm predicting that the WnW Camel will go quickly once it goes on sale, regardless of increased prices and lack of free shipping, ESPECIALLY since we know that the number of kits produced will be finite.  And in that case, you may be right about some "buying to flip." 
    When WnW does add shipping costs to their recent price increases I wonder what will happen to WnW sales in those countries where the buyer must reckon on high taxes, import duties, and other fees. But I'd bet that, even then, Camel fans will make adjustments in order to buy them (I'm saving my pennies for at least two).
Respectfully,
Rob

[eclarson]

     I think your conclusion based on one show (even though it was a Regional) might have to be marked "insufficient data." 
   ...
Respectfully,
Rob

Hi Rob,

Thank you for your input.  Just to be clear, I really didn't come to a conclusion, just more of a question raised.   You may be spot on regarding this instance being an anomaly but just a couple years every show I attended, some quite small, would have at least one or two WNW kits entered.  This being a well-attended Regional within reach of several large modeling groups, it struck me as strange to not see any there.

Cheers,
Eric

[Rob_Owens]

Eric, Sorry, I should have read more carefully. . . Your question wasn't about sales, but, "Since they ARE selling, why aren't more being built?"
Regards, Rob

[dr 1 ace]

Eric, Sorry, I should have read more carefully. . . Your question wasn't about sales, but, "Since they ARE selling, why aren't more being built?"
Regards, Rob

Well at the Last 3 IPMS Nationals there were in excess of 25 WNW kits  more than either 1/32 WW II or Modern Jets respectively, so plenty are being built, that indicates somewhat of a "bandwagon" and the 1/48 WWI entries have been increasing also.

Ed

[hiddeous1973]

Lasy show I went to was Antwerpen (Belguim) and there was only 1 WnW on show, several 1/48, no problem there.
There was only 1 vender selling WnW kits and the general feeling was that yes, yhey veru good, perhaps the best kits made ever, but too expensive.
I spent some time at that booth (old friend) and there were no takers, altough many people know the brand and the reputation.
some were holding 1/48 eduards and rodens in their hands so they build WWI, but no takers and the price was pretty good.
The man said he dropped the price twice on a preveous show and still no takers.
my feeling is that WnW might be becoming to expensive for the general public, but it is a one-time view and my persanol feeling

[RAGIII]

An interesting question and I am going to put out an abstract thought. As for the phenomenon, I think it was a combination of certain aspects of WNW releases. Suddenly there were/are absolutely beautifully detailed kits of WW1 subjects in a scale that allowed us WW1 modelers to really super detail or just build a great kit OOB. at a more than reasonable price. The draw for non WW1 builders was that terrific kits were now available and very buildable of subjects they recognized such as the SE5a, Pfalz, Albatros DV/DVa, Fokker DVII, etc. So they were drawn in to the WW1 Aircraft market and many have stayed there. The other more esoteric kits of 2 seaters and more obscure types like the Junkers J1 suited the Hardcore WW1 modeler. So now the abstract view. WNW has not released a truly MIANSTREAM model in a while. No Fokkers, Albatri, Sopwiths, Nieuports, or any recognizable to the non WW1. Added to that the latest releases have been larger higher priced kits that even a WW1 enthusiast thinks twice about! So my point is wait for the Camel release! You will see a huge difference in the reaction in spite of a little higher price! JMHO,
RAGIII

[dr 1 ace]

Good points Rick. A few additional thoughts, a big booster was the W-29 early on, why; it was a low wing monoplane, no rigging and a cool camo scheme.  At the Nationals in Omaha there were 4, I talked to all 4 builders independently and the story was the same, the previous 3 points, plus the WNW "rep" made all 4 build them as their first WW I a/c and one said it was his First A/c kit period.

Since there are now the vanilla, chocolate, and strawberry kits available (well- some sold out)  combined with Sir PJ's desires for the 2-seaters/lesser known types, price increase, the anecdotal stories of lack of interest is not without basis.  So Yes, as Rick said, sales of the Camel will be a more accurate barometer.  Also I think it would be a good idea  to then continue with kits of a/c not done (Dolphin-please-insert your own choices) before doing the Dr-I, jmho.

Ed

[lcarroll]

  "So Yes, as Rick said, sales of the Camel will be a more accurate barometer."   

I agree with yours and Rick's statements on this question Ed. The Camel will sell like pies at a County Fair IMHO; an iconic subject that will be more "buildable" then the ones now available, and like the P-51 or Spit to the WWII fans, a must have for most who work in our genre. I plan on getting at least two (to build) and I'd bet most here think the same. If sales at Wingnut are a concern then this is exactly what they need. As for a Dolphin, Giddy Up!!
Cheers,
Lance

[RAGIII]

  "So Yes, as Rick said, sales of the Camel will be a more accurate barometer."   

I agree with yours and Rick's statements on this question Ed. The Camel will sell like pies at a County Fair IMHO; an iconic subject that will be more "buildable" then the ones now available, and like the P-51 or Spit to the WWII fans, a must have for most who work in our genre. I plan on getting at least two (to build) and I'd bet most here think the same. If sales at Wingnut are a concern then this is exactly what they need. As for a Dolphin, Giddy Up!!
Cheers,
Lance

I plan on a couple myself... to build also. So if I am correct there should be bunch showing up at contests after release.
RAGIII

[JiffyJDavies]

Don't know if it's winding down, but I think WNW have passed their high water mark. I think their sales per kit will not hit the same numbers they've had in the past, purely because the price makes them less affordable for many, me included!

[RAGIII]

Don't know if it's winding down, but I think WNW have passed their high water mark. I think their sales per kit will not hit the same numbers they've had in the past, purely because the price makes them less affordable for many, me included!

That could very well be though again I emphasize that it depends on the "General" market appeal for, not just us WW enthusiast but also those just interested in the Spits and 109s of WW1. I personally won't decrease my spending on WNW kits. I have stated before that my purchases have amounted to 1 or 2 a year. Not going to change that much with increases in pricing. Those that purchase each and every WNW kit probably wont change much either as they must have a larger disposable income to start. So it is the in-betweens that may wind down a bit. JMHO,
RAGIII

[dr 1 ace]

Price is always a consideration, just depends upon what you want and are you willing to pay for it immediately or wait till sufficient funds are available.  Say the Camel comes out as 3 different boxes, that still leaves 18 numbers to be filled; that allows for plenty of the "wish lists" to be produced.  Just hope the Dolphin comes soon...

Ed

[Nigel Jackson]

Hello All

Maybe what we are seeing/wii see is a change in the profile of the WNW buying public. With the release of those first few magnificent models, WNW captured the excitement and loyalty of Great War aircraft fans who were then only too happy, pockets allowing, to follow the whims of new releases. Outside what has been our relatively narrow niche, some of these releases must have seemed somewhat esoteric.

Yet, over recent years there has been an increasing number of reviews and builds of WNW kits in the more mainstream aircraft and general modelling magazines. Such articles have surely alerted others to the quality, comparative constructional ease and excellent value of the WNW products. All that might be needed to nudge many more into trying one themselves is the release of a familiar single seater at the lower end of the WNW price range. Bring on the Camel ....... even if it does mean it being followed by a you know what!

Best wishes
Nigel

[macsporran]

At the Scottish National Model Show in Perth (the original one!) a week or so back, there was a noticeable dearth of WNW models for the first time in years.

Previously there have been lots of these fantastic kits (with a terrific Felixstowe and several others in competition last year and probably a couple of dozen more in evidence elsewhere). However this year only one club table had the usual  handful they always show - but the only new WNW model was a nice Salmson in the competition.

Perth is a pretty big show and attracts lots of clubs, vendors and manufacturers, so I was disappointed by this. There were two WNWs on a vendors stand - a Ninack at £80 and a Fokker DVII at £90 which I thought were pretty OK prices but the Fokker was still there at the end of the second day. Probably not surprising when there were lots of better deals - eg one trader had a stack of big Tamiya Mosquitoes (export grade with the extra bits) as a show-special, reduced from £159 to £100!!! Since my Dad was in Mozzies I had to treat myself to one of them - Heck of a lot more kit than the Fokker DVII for only £10 more!
One dealer had Merit 1/24 SE5s and Dr.1s going like hotcakes at £45 each.

I know lots of listees have said they are prepared to pay anything WNW decide to charge but I think Wingnuts will have sold very little since the price rise. I just hope they haven't scuppered the company.

Anyway on a brighter note, I had a great catch-up with John Adams at the Aeroclub stand and he sends his best regards to all on the list that know him. I picked up several packs of his extruded wing struts, instruments  and suchlike (and I suggest it's worth doing the same as some of his suppliers are becoming a bit erratic).

Lots of interest in the Airfix BE2 and Eindekker and some were being built by the kids' on the Airfix shake and bake tables, so that must be a good sign for the future.
Sandy

PS pics are available at www.scotnats.org if of any interest